Breakin' Down The Sched!

I admit, I'm one of those UK fans who's overly optimistic each and every season despite what the naysayers predict on paper or on the air. I like to think that Kentucky would run the table every year, but I ain't that stupid. I know deep down there are going to be wins no one expects and there are going to be losses no one could ever fathom the thought of. This year Kentucky's post presence will be fresh and while we haven't yet seen what a Patrick Patterson can do in a Kentucky uni I have to be optimistic he's going to be a replaceable threat to Randolph Morris. I have to believe that Billy Gillispie will have these Cats up and running and I have to believe that Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford will step up and provide senior leadership and results on the hardwood as any reasonable Kentucky fan should expect.

Kentucky's sched came out yesterday and well, here's my preseason take on it.

Key Losses
Dec 1 North Carolina
Dec 8 @ Indiana
Jan 22 Tenn
Mar 2 @ Tenn

Yes, I expect to be swept by Tennessee this year. I think Indiana is a game no one thinks of losing but it's possible on the road. All these losses are key games for Kentucky, and it's not to say they won't win any of these games, I'm just expecting losses.

Ok, looking at the schedule, Kentucky has one whale of a month in January, and of course it's a key month this season.

Month of the Year: January
5th L'ville, optimistically: win, realistically: loss
12th Vandy, optim: win, realist: win
15th @ Miss St., optim: win, realist: win
19th @ Florida, optim: win, realist: loss
22nd Tenn, optim: win, realist: loss
26th SC, optim: win, realist: win

Optimistically I'd like to see these kids go 6-0, but come on, for real that ain't gonna happen. Realistically the Cats could go 3-3 with losses to Louisville, Florida, and Tennessee, so somewhere in the middle of the road is where I will predict a 4-2 record in the month of January with a win vs Louisville and loss to Florida on the road and a loss to Tennessee in Rupp Arena.

Important Stretch of Games

Kentucky early on their schedule I feel has an important stretch of games which are crucial to the momentum Gillispie will be trying to build his team with. Realistically Kentucky is going to lose to North Carolina, so the following games are important, including the UNC game (to win it first of all), to rebound in case of a loss to UNC …

Dec 1 UNC
Dec 8 @ Indiana
Dec 15UAB
Dec 18 @ Houston

Non-Conference

There are two tough games on the non-conference sched for the Wildcats: UNC and Indiana (excluding the Hoops Classic). The rest should be, SHOULD BE, wins. Maybe not convincing wins, but Kentucky should and are expected to pull out those wins.

Key Stretch of Conference Games

Feb 12- March 5 {7 games}
@ Vandy, optim: win, realist: loss
@ LSU, optim:win, realist: win
Georgia, optim: win, realist: win
Arkansas, optim: win, realist: win
Ole Miss, optim: win, realist: win
@ Tenn, optim: loss, realist: loss
@ SC, optim: win, realist: loss

Optimistically: 6-1, Realistically: 4-3
Vandy, Tennessee, and South Carolina could all be losses this late in the season if Kentucky isn't focused and playing well. Tennessee is practically a lock for a loss for Kentucky while Vandy and SC tend to play us hard on the road in their house, so it's somewhere between four and six wins during this stretch and I would bank on around five wins and two losses. Those two losses likely being Tennessee and Vanderbilt - both on the road for Kentucky.

In addition to what I've layed out of my expectations this season thus far, there are also unexpected disappointing losses which occur almost every season. It's just bound to happen and it's very hard to predict which is why I'm going to try to predict which games are going to be disappointing losses for Kentucky this upcoming season.

Disappointing Losses
Jan 15 @ Miss St.
Feb 6 @ Auburn
Feb 12 @ Vandy
March 5 @ SC

No big surprise these unexpected losses might occur on the road. Vandy I have slated for a loss already and accounted for already in my final predictions, but nonetheless is disappointing.

So with that said, realistically I'm looking at an 18-9 (9-7) season for Kentucky. Optimistically, I'm looking at a 22-5 (13-3) season - all excluding the Hoops Classic Tourny in the beginning of the season. So somewhere between these two records is likely where Kentucky will end up for the season I feel.

The Wildcat Blog's Hoops Expectations

Wins: Between 18-22
Losses: Between 5-9

So I feel Kentucky is destined to earn at least 18 wins and at the most 9 losses for their upcoming campaign for their eighth national title. Lastly, all of the games I have slated for losses are key games for Kentucky. Not to say they'll definitely win or lose but they're key to Kentucky's success this year. There are nine games I have down for losses (possible losses). DL=Disappointing Loss.

KEY GAMES
Dec 1 UNC
Dec 8 @ Indiana
Jan 15 @ Miss St (DL)
Jan 19 @ Florida
Jan 22 Tenn
Feb 6 @ Auburn (DL)
Feb 12 @ Vandy (DL)
March 2 @ Tenn
March 5 @ SC (DL)

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